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The year-end statistics are in and things look surprising better for the Northeast (particularly New Hampshire) when compared to the rest of the country.  That's not to say we don't have our challenges.

NH saw unprecedented equity gains from 2000 through 2005.  If we assume that on average we should have only seen 6% gains for each of the six years the total would have been 36% (6 x 6% = 36%).  Our actual gains on average totaled nearly 60% !!!  The past two years (2006 and 2007) saw only moderated price adjustments of less than -2% for each year.  Looking at this in round numbers and thinking that we must adjust prices back to where the average would have been with the average 6% gain each year one could assume we still need a whopping -28% correction to get back in-line with what a healthy steady gain would have been.

It's not that simple folks.  Whereas it's true NH has seen less than a -2% drop in median prices in each of the past two years what is selling appears to be substantially more house - i.e., larger homes with higher end amenities such as stainless-steel appliances and granite counters, solid wood cabinetry, detailed trim, more acreage, better views, etc.  These properties would have sold for substantially more money at the peak in 2005 than they are right now, however, because of the general market condition they are currently selling for about 20% less than their previous high.

In the final analysis it would appear that NH has already corrected it's prices - with perhaps just a few more points to go, but only a few.  If buyers are trying to time the "bottom of the market" they'd better strap on their running shoes and get ready to move quickly some time this year.  I guess I'm on official record now, but 2008 looks to be the year when we return to what can only be described as a "normal market".

The wild cards in all of this is of course the economy and the upcoming presidential elections.  More on these issues at a later date.

Stay tuned and informed!

The national and local media seem to be only reporting the news that make headlines stand out.  Just like the way they start their broadcasts in radio or television as well has print media headlines - it's all the bad stuff first.  You need to dig deeper to discover what's really going on.  Niche markets such as waterfront properties or starter homes often don't follow general trends.  Some specific locations or property developments may also show dramatic differences.

Let's start a discussion about how and where these difference are found.  Let me know what's on your mind.  I check this blog daily and will be happy to provide anyone with the specifics they need - be it good or bad.  This is about accurate information, not a sugar-coated or doom-n-gloom spin.

John Kinney
Country Houses
New London, NH